if you're not a fantasy baseball geek, move along

Mar 22, 2007

if you're not a fantasy baseball geek, move along · by Rafi Kam

You should skip these posts if you have no interest in baseball or more specifically fantasy baseball.

Unless you just like seeing hip-hop bloggers competing for money and bragging rights.

Last night we held a draft for our fantasy baseball league. It’s a standard 5×5 roto league where each team has 21 roster spots.

The following is my assessment of rounds 1 through 7. I’ll do another post or two for the later rounds.

THE COMPETITORS (in the random order Yahoo assigned for the draft)

Of course fantasy baseball team names are subject to frequent change so the team names may not be the same next time I post about the league.

Barry the G.O.A.T. It figures that big brother from bay area rap blog Nation of Thizzlam would salute San Francisco mutanoid Barry Bonds in his team name.

OUTKASTS a non-blogging friend of Ian’s who I think missed the draft so Yahoo picked for him.

Wake Your HoJo Up I love the Howard Johnson reference in the team name. The one and only Travis of Wake Your Daughter Up.

Your Father J-Smooth of the blog that actually is father to many – HipHopMusic.com

Hallelujah Holla Back Jay Solis who writes the Inane Asylum and who has been a co-worker of both J-Smooth and myself at two different jobs.

Angry Citizen Finally some team names where I can tell what blogger owns the team. Brooklyn’s own Angry Citizen.

20/20 Proof It is what it is. 20/20 Proof.

Durant Is Ready SOHH video-analysis expert, Ron Mexico is in the building!

Reflex Massive Shay of Official Urban Underground giving fantasy baseball a try for the first time.

Cheezy Blues The people’s champ, Dallas Penn.

Barry’s Hat = Size 11 It’s the Commish, coming straight from your Slushy Gutter.

justin He’s not a blogger, he’s an entity. This is one of three leagues I’ll be facing Justin in this year. Man that team name stinks.

OhWord is on HGH Yours truly.

Pokers As far as I can tell this Ian doesn’t run a hip-hop blog but if you want to read about the helpdesk software company he founded, his blog can’t be beat.

ROUND 1 … FIGHT

Albert Pujols Barry the G.O.A.T.
Johan Santana OUTKASTS
Alfonso Soriano Wake Your HoJo Up
Álex Rodríguez Your Father
José Reyes Hallelujah Holla Back
Ryan Howard Angry Citizen
Chase Utley 20/20 Proof
Carlos Beltrán Durant Is Ready
Joe Mauer Reflex Massive
David Wright Cheezy Blues
Vladimir Guerrero Barry’s Hat = Size 11
Carl Crawford justin
Miguel Cabrera OhWord is on HGH
Ichiro Suzuki Pokers

Jose Reyes falls to the 5th pick. To me Jose should definitely be a top 3 pick. Power, tremendous SB potential and as a shortstop he has position scarcity going for him. Oh yeah, and he’s only getting better. Scary.

Justin must have been very happily surprised to get Carl Crawford with his 12th pick. With Crawford’s 20 HR / 60 SB / .300 avg potential, he’s like Reyes in the outfield. Every bit as valuable as Soriano and Beltran you have to like him in the 12th spot.

Similarly I was very happy to get Miguel Cabrera with the 13th pick. Miguel is a beast and it’s fun to root for the kid. Given his youth, a power surge could be coming any year which is why I like him better than Vlad who went two picks earlier.

Some people might think Chase Utley went too high at 7th, I have no problem seeing him there. Again that’s about scarcity – Utley really dominates over the field of second basemen.

Joe Mauer is clearly the worst pick in the round. Tremendous ball-player at a scarce position but there’s just better fantasy value out there and catchers always carry the risk of injury and reduced playing time. As someone comments, “there are a lot of servicable catchers out there”.

Shay is doing fantasy for the first time and this pick is not a bad one if you’re picking who to build a real team around. But for fantasy it may hurt him. What he will learn with more experience is he most likely could have picked someone else and still had Mauer with his 2nd round pick.

ROUND 2

Grady Sizemore Pokers
David Ortiz OhWord is on HGH
Lance Berkman justin
Matt Holliday Barry’s Hat = Size 11
Mark Teixeira Cheezy Blues
Manny Ramírez Reflex Massive
Carlos Lee Durant Is Ready
Travis Hafner 20/20 Proof
Derek Jeter Angry Citizen
Chris Carpenter Hallelujah Holla Back
Jason Bay Your Father
Justin Morneau Wake Your HoJo Up
Jimmy Rollins OUTKASTS
Hanley Ramírez Barry the G.O.A.T.

It’s very hard to argue with any of these second round picks.

Sizemore, Ortiz, Holliday and Hafner are all great candidates to put up Round 1 worthy numbers making them potential steals in the 2nd round.

Carpenter is the 2nd best stud SP after Johan Santana. There’s a shortage of great ace pitchers so I like him in the mid-2nd round.

Jeter, Rollins and Hanley Ramirez all go in this round so the top tier of shortstops are off the board. 4 of the first 28 picks are shortstops. Position scarcity in full effect.

ROUND 3

Jake Peavy Barry the G.O.A.T.
Andruw Jones OUTKASTS
Roy Oswalt Wake Your HoJo Up
Miguel Tejada Your Father
Vernon Wells Hallelujah Holla Back
Bobby Abreu Angry Citizen
Michael Young 20/20 Proof
Derrek Lee Durant Is Ready
Carlos Guillen Reflex Massive
Francisco Rodriguez Cheezy Blues
Roy Halladay Barry’s Hat = Size 11
Aramis Ramirez justin
Garrett Atkins OhWord is on HGH
Rafael Furcal Pokers

I would have gone Oswalt over Peavy but that’s just a question of minimizing risk vs higher upside. big brother went for the upside.

I like Vernon Wells here, he may put up similar numbers to Carlos Lee and is taken almost a full round later.

I was hoping Derrek Lee would fall but Ron Mexico is no fool. We obviously both expect a return to form for Lee. He’ll be right up there with the top first basemen in the majors and returning from injury makes him an overlooked steal here.

I like K-Rod but Nathan should have been the first closer off the board.

More shortstops fly off the board. This time it’s Tejada, Young, Guillen and Furcal.

I have a shot at Furcal but I opt for Atkins instead, even though I already have a third-baseman in Miguel Cabrera and the position is loaded with guys.

The reason? Atkins is a monster. His 2nd half numbers are sick, his doubles were high (they say that’s a good indication of future homer power), his away numbers are very good which indicates that he’s not just a Coors creation. Atkins is a safe bet to hit .300 with 35 HR and I think his upside is even higher (.320, around 40HR).

I’m not sure why Justin chose 3B Aramis Ramirez over Atkins. Aramis is solid but if anything just batting in front of Helton and Holliday instead of Michael Barrett and Jacque Jones means Atkins will score a lot more runs. The rest of their numbers will probably be quite similar.

ROUND 4

Bill Hall Pokers
Carlos Zambrano OhWord is on HGH
Brandon Webb justin
Carlos Delgado Barry’s Hat = Size 11
Víctor Martínez Cheezy Blues
John Smoltz Reflex Massive
Joe Nathan Durant Is Ready
Paul Konerko 20/20 Proof
Daisuke Matsuzaka Angry Citizen
Jermaine Dye Hallelujah Holla Back
Chone Figgins Your Father
Troy Glaus Wake Your HoJo Up
Robinson Canó OUTKASTS
Johnny Damon Barry the G.O.A.T.

Ian is a clever little bugger, isn’t he? By taking Bill Hall right after he had taken Furcal he is helping to escalate the shortstop drought.

Hall who has power and speed is also 3B eligible and will soon be OF eligible so Ian won’t even have to use a DH spot to get both shortstops in his lineup.

So after the wrap-around the 9 best shortstops are off the board. All that’s left at the position is Boston’s versatile Julio Lugo, SB-monster Felipe Lopez, power-hitting average-killing Troy Glaus and last year’s kind of ho-hum NL batting champ Freddie Sanchez.

I can’t bring myself to pull the trigger on any of these guys in round 4. I already have 3 great hitters and ace pitching is also in short supply so I decide to accept the void at shortstop and I take Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano.

A few other owners are also thinking about anchoring their pitching staff as Zambrano, Webb, Smoltz and Daisuke get snatched up. Despite his lack of MLB experience, I have no problem with Daisuke in the middle of the 4th round. I think he’ll pay off there.

There aren’t any really bad picks in Round 4. I’m not very high on Delgado, Konerko, Glaus, Cano, Figgins but people are filling spots and those guys are all respectable choices.

ROUND 5

Jeremy Bonderman Barry the G.O.A.T.
Brian McCann OUTKASTS
Mariano Rivera Wake Your HoJo Up
Gary Sheffield Your Father
Brian Roberts Hallelujah Holla Back
Juan Pierre Angry Citizen
Ryan Zimmerman 20/20 Proof
Dan Uggla Durant Is Ready
Jason Giambi Reflex Massive
Dontrelle Willis Cheezy Blues
Scott Rolen Barry’s Hat = Size 11
B.J. Ryan justin
Hideki Matsui OhWord is on HGH
Jim Thome Pokers

Now as opposed to Round 1, Round 5 is a great time for an elite catcher to go.

I like McCann, Pierre and Sheffield to give a good return in this round.

Although I’m a big fan of Dontrelle Willis I can’t support the pick here for fantasy purposes. He doesn’t have the K’s or WHIP to anchor a fantasy staff. Many better SP’s are still around.

I’m still not liking Lugo or Lopez or any available 2b as Round 5 picks given what’s available. I’m thinking Ben Sheets and Hideki Matsui but I decide that the high injury risk on Sheets makes him more likely to last after Ian’s 2 picks. So I take Matsui for that crucial bopper in the outfield.

Given the shortage of stud pitching I want a great #2 so I’m figuring that if Sheets goes I’ll take Sabathia.

ROUND 6

Prince Fielder Pokers
Ben Sheets OhWord is on HGH
C.C. Sabathia justin
Billy Wagner Barry’s Hat = Size 11
Magglio Ordóñez Cheezy Blues
Dan Haren Reflex Massive
Scott Kazmir Durant Is Ready
Trevor Hoffman 20/20 Proof
Félix Hernández Angry Citizen
John Lackey Hallelujah Holla Back
Justin Verlander Your Father
Julio Lugo Wake Your HoJo Up
Felipe López OUTKASTS
Adam Dunn Barry the G.O.A.T.

Someone comments that Ian keeps taking 2 guys at the same positions with his wrap-around picks. True indeed: Ichiro-Sizemore, Furcal-Hall and now Thome-Fielder. As I said before I think his Hall pick is smart because SS is so scarce and Hall is versatile. I’m less supportive of Thome/Fielder. Scarcity is not really an issue. The great 1b are already off the board, but there are plenty of decent enough options left. With Thome being the injury risk that he is and Ian already loaded with hitters I would have gone for an SP in his place. Interestingly Ian will wait many more rounds before going for pitching.

So I get Sheets. Justin immediately follows it with Sabathia. If Sheets stays healthy he’s a guaranteed top 3 starter so I think he’s a steal in the 6th.

More SP’s fly off the board with Haren, Kazmir, King Felix, Lackey and Verlander. My least favorite pick here is Verlander. There are at least 20 SP’s (Tatum O’Neal from Bad News Bears spring to mind) still on the board that I’d take before Verlander.

Lugo and Lopez get taken one after the other. Good. I won’t need to think about getting a shortstop until late in the draft now.

ROUND 7

Matt Cain Barry the G.O.A.T.
Huston Street OUTKASTS
Aaron Harang Wake Your HoJo Up
Rich Harden Your Father
Chipper Jones Hallelujah Holla Back
Delmon Young Angry Citizen
Brett Myers 20/20 Proof
Stephen Drew Durant Is Ready
Chad Tracy Reflex Massive
Torii Hunter Cheezy Blues
Mike Mussina Barry’s Hat = Size 11
Nick Swisher justin
Cole Hamels OhWord is on HGH
Mike Piazza Pokers

The SP free-for-all continues with Cain, Harang, Harden, Myers and Mussina. J Smooth somewhat makes up for the Verlander pick with Harden who if he stays healthy will dominate the AL. Think about how much nicer he would have been as a #2 behind a more solid anchor.

Lots of young sleeper hitters go this round like Delmon Young, Stephen Drew, Chad Tracy, Nick Swisher. I don’t like any of those picks here in the 7th round – too expensive.

The 3B taken this round are Chad Tracy and Chipper Jones meanwhile the draft pool still has Teahen, Beltre, Ensberg, Chavez, Edwin Encarnacion, Alex Gordon, Blalock who will all go way later.

Third base is just too deep to spend a 7th round pick on a so-so player. There are so-so guys to spare. I like Teahen, Encarnacion and Ensberg best of the remaining bunch and would take any of the three over Jones or Tracy.

Ian pairs Piazza with a non-catcher in the 8th round. Someone comments that he has deviated from his two at the same position plan and he takes that as a slight on Piazza, starts defending his pick. No need to defend it – Piazza’s a great pick here. DH’ing will keep him healthy, he’s always ripped AL pitching and batting cleanup he could end up being a great source of production from the catcher spot and came a hell of a lot cheaper than the 3 kids (martinez, mccann, mauer).

Meanwhile i take my 3rd potential ace pitcher in Cole Hamels. I wasn’t really planning to roll so deep with starting pitching but with Hamels and Sheets I saw chances to take guys who to me were clearly the best value on the board.

With Piazza gone I am resolved to taking Michael Barrett or Russell Martin later on – two under-rated options at Catcher who could fall after the more established veteran names.

****************************

At the end of 7 rounds I have Miguel Cabrera, David Ortiz, Garrett Atkins, Carlos Zambrano, Hideki Matsui, Ben Sheets and Cole Hamels. 4 big bats and 3 stud pitchers. Obviously after 7 I’m lacking any closers, any middle infielders and I don’t have anything in the way of SB’s.

But I’m also helping to contribute to the already existing SP shortage which creates a problem for the rest of the league.

We’ll see how these issues play out in the next thrilling draft analysis post!

Comments for "if you're not a fantasy baseball geek, move along"

haha – I don’t think I did to bad for myself reviewing things. But the first-round thing was a cock-up and just me going in blind we live and we learn.

— Shay Mar 22, 02:36 PM
Shay my first year of roto I took Mariano Rivera and Keith Foulke with my first two picks. Later that year I traded Tejada… this was in the middle of his MVP season.

You’ll learn for sure.

— Rafi Mar 22, 04:01 PM
I’m happy with my draft. I just missed the bus waiting around for a couple pitchers, but other than that, I’m well pleased.

I had to take Drew in the 7th because of the damn SS run. Being in the middle, sometimes you have to do some drastic shit. I really would rather not have, but I didn’t wanna be ass out at SS.

Excellent analysis, Raf. OSPN salutes one of its great anchors.

— Ron Mexico Mar 22, 04:08 PM
being stuck dead in the middle presented me with problems cause it felt like the players i had in line to be taken would get snatched up a pick before,etc. with my first round pick i was either going with chase utley or carl crawford, so i was also surprised when carl slipped to the 12th pick. my strategy was not to go with pitchers early and wait till the later rounds, but i think my staff is still on par with some of the other teams despite not having the flashy names. i prob should have followed up m y round 6 pick of trevor hoffman with another reliever in round 7 and put more pressure on other owners to grab a reliever.

— Peter Divito Mar 22, 07:06 PM
Ahhh, Rafi played me on my Delmon Young pick. But in hindsight I would have to agree with you.
Of all the 7th round picks who is more hardbody? Delmon Young for throwing a bat at an umpire or Brett Myers for beating his wife on a downtown Boston street?

— angrycitizen Mar 22, 08:11 PM
Bill Hall is nice and all, but the fourth round is way, way, way too early. Of course, Guillen as a third rounder is even crazier. The dirty secret this year is that short’s not all that scarce – you can find decent guys 8 or 9 down (says the guy who has Tejada as a keeper). Pitching’s even deeper, though I probably would have ordered it Santana-Webb-Carpenter-Lackey-Halladay-Bonderman-Zambrano-Peavy-Sheets-Sabathia-Smoltz

— jon Mar 22, 08:20 PM
Nice breakdown of the proceedings. I had no strategy, no clue, and barely knew how to log onto the computer. I’m confident I’ll be the Devils Rays of this league.

— CommishCH Mar 23, 11:50 AM
Dude, ridiculously cool breakdown! This is the first chance I had to get over here and see what you’re up to lately. Fantastic!

Though I don’t do a rap blog it is my preferred type of music. Rap + help desk software. Does it get better than that! :-)

— Ian Mar 30, 12:34 AM
Free Agent Walk Year = Fantasy Gold

Every year there is a new batch of free agents and every year those players entering that “walk year” seem to exceed expectations. I have many thoughts and theories on this, but the one thing that always comes to mind is this… http://www.fantasybaseballgeeks.com

— fantasygeek23 Apr 16, 09:28 AM

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